2013 - what will change?

It's always tempting to seek insight into the future. At the end of every year and beginning of the new, pundits are asked on various subjects what they think will happen in the next 12 months.

So why can't we all have a go?

Here's what I think.

1. The economy will bounce around on the bottom on a national basis but within 100 miles of Salisbury it will grow and remain relatively buoyant.
2. Companies will continue to keep profits and those trading profitably will maintain positive balances on deposit  - if this carries on they won't need banks for short term lending.
3. Small private companies whose owners do not add value but just sit back and milk profits will continue to lose key staff, who will turn to freelancing and other forms of self employment.
4. Companies with any foresight will invest heavily on an integrated approach to managing how they are perceived with an emphasis on internal marketing and effective engagement with all employees.
5. Retail will continue to decline on the High Street, but those who invest with online stores will survive.
6. The Euro will get more complicated after the German election.
7. The USA will begin to produce goods and reduce imports - the same will take place in the UK. Getting into manufacturing will be a wise move.
8. The coalition government in the UK will begin to fall apart towards the end of the year - but it will make little difference to the economy.
9. One major natural or man made disaster in the world will be enough to tip the world into a long depression.
10. The true scale of bad debts will finally be quantified with a recognition that many banks have been hiding corporate loans that have gone bad - it will make the home loan crisis in the States look like a party in comparison.
11. Interest rates will be artificially kept low as over 1 million people are currently employed in the UK in companies that are barely able to service their debts. A 2% rise would see hundreds of companies fall into administration. 
12. Starting later this years and running over the next 4 years thousands of interest only mortgages come up for renewal - will the availability of credit being restricted look for an increase in defaults and lower property prices.

Lets see in 12 months how I did.